Brown, Dale - Patrick McLanahan 06 (6 page)

 
          
“I.
. . because, Comrade Admiral, the plan calls for Longtian to attack and destroy
those two Nationalist bases,” Ai said. “It is all in the plan, sir. ...”

 
          
“Yes,
I know, but the plan is
wrong
,” Sun
said. This caused a gasp from Ai and from most of the officers attending the
briefing—and an absolutely explosive grimace from Qian. “It is wrong because .
. . Damn you, Colonel, you can
see
it
is wrong.
Change
it. We could be
called upon at any moment to execute this attack plan, and I want to be sure it
is
perfect.
”

 
          
“It
is not wise to change the war plans,” General Qian said. “Yes, yes, some
missiles are not in place right now, but they will be soon. If we are ordered
to execute our war plans, we can move additional forces eastward to cover those
two Nationalist air bases. Does that alleviate your concern, Comrade Admiral?”

 
          
“Comrade
General, the purpose of this planning committee is to continually modify the
existing war plans to reflect current circumstances and conditions,” Sun Ji
Guoming said. “This is done so we do not have to wait until the moment we
execute the war order to learn that we do not have the forces in place to
accomplish the mission. When you were notified that Longtian was flooded and missiles
were being relocated, you should have immediately moved additional forces to
cover those targets.”

           
“You mean, fly hundreds of aircraft
and thousands of troops all over
China
just for a few days until some mud is swept
away?” General Qian asked. “Do you realize how much that would cost? And what
of other war plans for which those aircraft and personnel are committed? That
means coordinating with dozens of other headquarters all over
China
.”

           
“But, sir, that is th
e purpose
of this planning group—to
respond immediately to changes that might affect this war plan,” Sun argued.
“If it becomes necessary to move men and equipment to a new location, then so
be it. We should—”

           
“We should look at the solution in a
different way, a way that will not be as complicated or as costly,” Qian
interjected, obviously impatient to get this briefing over with. “Perhaps in
the future we can brief possible replacement units that could be utilized to
fill in, in situations such as have occurred in Longtian. We do not actually
move
any forces, but we earmark them for
possible action in case the war plan is activated. How does that sound to you,
Comrade Sun?”

 
          
Sun
opened his mouth to respond, but thought better of it. It was a bad idea. The
war plan for the invasion of
Taiwan
was supposed to be a rapid reaction
plan—the invasion was supposed to begin within twenty-four hours of the
execution order. The world, especially
Taiwan
and its de facto ally, the
United States of America
, would immediately detect any massive troop
or equipment movements; the element of surprise would be lost, and
China
no doubt would be forced to stand down its
forces. If there were huge gaps in the reaction time of forces key to the plan—
especially the Dong Feng-15 missile bombardment units, which were supposed to
destroy key air defense and coastal defense sites in western
Taiwan
—the entire invasion plan was in jeopardy.

 
          
But
now was not the time to argue this point. “Very well, Comrade General,” Sun
acquiesced. “As long as the chief of staff is aware of the degradation, and
immediately advised as to the steps being taken to correct the deficiency, a
briefing note such as you suggest could be acceptable. But it is certainly
not
acceptable to brief that a certain
element in the attack plan is mission-capable if it is in fact not so. The war
plans are not carved in stone—they must be continually modified or they are
useless. Please do not commit that error again, Comrade Colonel.”

 
          
“Yes,
Comrade Admiral,” Colonel Ai responded, nodding contritely. Ai took a moment to
take a sip of water, collect his thoughts, and find his place again—and
immediately proceeded to give his briefing exactly as prepared, errors and all.
There were at least two more instances that Sun knew of where attack units were
not in place—in one case, an attack unit that Ai briefed was key to the
destruction of a radar site on the Pescadores Islands in the Formosa Strait did
not even
exist
any longer! The
planning committee had done virtually nothing to the original Central Military
Commission war plans drafted several years earlier.

 
          
“Another
question, Comrade Colonel,” Sun interjected, swallowing his exasperation. “You
seem quite content to sail the carrier
Mao
and her escorts right up to
Kaohsiung
, supported by air forces from Pingtan and naval air units from
Quanzhou. But that means our J-6s will be up against the Nationalists’ F-16s
from T’ainan. ...”

 
          
“We
enjoy a six to one superiority in fighters, Comrade Admiral,” Ai responded.
“Also, the DF-15 bombardment is guaranteed to destroy all of the runways that
might possibly be used by the F-16s. Even if we do not destroy many F-16s on
the ground, they will be trapped either aloft running out of fuel and weapons,
or on the ground unable to launch.” “Your estimates of the amount of damage our
rockets might do to the Nationalists’ bases is arguable, since they have a
great quantity of ballistic missile defense systems and much of their
warfighting infrastructure is belowground, where our rockets would have little
effect, ” Sun said. “But even if our rocket attack is
twice
as effective as you say, our numerical fighter aircraft
superiority can be completely erased if our air attack is at night.”

           
“Sir . . . ?”

 
          
“Our
J-5
and J-6 fighters and most of our
J-7 fighters are not capable of night operations—I see that seventy-five
percent of the air cover for the carrier is composed of J-6s,” Sun explained.
“Only about ten percent are J-7s and J-8s. Where are the Sukhoi-27s? Those are
our most capable fighters.”

 
          
“The
Su-27s are based at Haikou Airfield, on Hainan Dao, Comrade Admiral,” Ai
replied.

 
          
“I
know where they are based, comrade—my question is, why are they not part of
this offensive?” Sun asked. “Our fifty best fighters against their fifty best
fighters—it would be an excellent battle, one that we could very well win. Such
a battle could be decisive.”

 
          
“There
you go again, comrade,” General Qian interjected, with a chuckle that sounded
as if he were losing a lung. “The Sukhoi-27s have been deployed to
Hainan
Island
to patrol the Nansha Dao. Their base
facilities are specially made just for them. Do you now suggest we spend
billions of
yuan
more to move them
north to Pingtan or
Fuzhou
?”

           
“For this offensive—of course we
should, sir,” Sun replied. “We need our best equipment and best pilots to blunt
the rebel’s superior technological advantage, and the Sukhoi-27s are just as
capable and perhaps superior to the F-16 Fighting Falcon. The teaming of J-8s
with Su-27s is easily superior to a matchup between
Taiwan
’s F-16s and F-5 Freedom Fighters. The key,
obviously, is the Sukhoi-27s.”

 
          
“We
also have the advantage of superior command and control,” Ai interjected,
“namely, the Ilyushin-76 radar surveillance planes. Two of our U-76s operating
in the region during the conflict greatly increase the flexibility of the J-7s
and J-6s. ”

 
          
“Our
radar plane crews are just now being certified for combat duties,” Sun
responded. “I feel it is not wise to trust them to carry the air battle for us,
especially if we are top-heavy with fighters that require constant airborne
intercept and even weapon-control information right down to ‘knife-fighting’
range. That could overload the radar operators and cause confusion.”

 
          
“Every
commander wants the best, especially the young ones like yourself,” Qian
argued, his voice very grandfatherly, almost jovial. “The J-6s and J-7
fighters, along with the Ilyushin-76 radar planes, will perform well beyond all
expectations.”

 
          
“But
the Su-27s will give us an edge—”

 
          
“The
Sukhoi-27s were based on Hainan Dao to protect our interests in the
South China Sea
, in case of attack by Vietnamese or
Philippine forces on our holdings in the
Spratly
Islands
,” Qian said. He raised a suspicious eyebrow
and asked Sun, “You are not suggesting we abandon our rights to the
South China Sea
, Comrade Admiral?”

 
          
“Of...
course .. . not, sir,” Sun Ji Guoming replied, stunned by the question. “Sir, I
am not trying to discredit the war plan or impose my own views over that of the
Party or the Central Military Commission. My intention is to suggest
improvements on the plan to ensure a safe and successful outcome. The
Formosa
invasion—”

 
          
“Is
well planned and ready for execution, without the added complication of the
Sukhoi-27 fighters,” Qian said confidently. “They can always be brought north
in case they are needed, but with a six-to-one numerical advantage in fighters
now, along with the carrier
Mao’s
fleet of Sukhoi-33 fighters, we feel the carrier is well-protected and we can
destroy any opposition from
Kaohsiung
. A little danger is to be expected, my young friend—you cannot summon
every rifle or every jet you wish. The plan has been formulated to concentrate
necessary strength on defeating the rebels without sacrificing security or
strategic balance in other areas of our vast nation. Please continue, comrade.
...”

 
          
“Perhaps
you do not understand, Comrade General,” Sun said. “The National Assembly of
the rebel Nationalist government on
Taiwan
has just voted to amend their constitution
to declare themselves independent and sovereign from the mainland.”

 
          
Colonel
Lieutenant Ai Peijian appeared to be a bit confused. Since no one else was
speaking, he said, “Permit me to speak, sir, but why is this such shocking
news? The rebels have been thinking they can be independent from us for a long
time.”

 
          
“But
now they’ve declared it to the world! ” Sun shouted. “They have put it in their
constitution! They have dared to declare that there are
two
Chinas, separate and equal!
Equal!
To
us?
How dare they!
How dare they
do such a thing!”

 
          
“It
is meaningless, sir,” Colonel Ai said, still unsure as to why Sun was so angry.
“The world knows it is not true. It is like a bug declaring it is equal to the
elephant. The world knows that eventually the rebel government will be
overthrown and the
province
of
Taiwan
will return to the People’s—” “The world
knows, does it? The world knows?” Sun interrupted, suddenly stopping his
furious pacing. “You did not hear the rest of the news, then, Comrade Colonel:
It is expected that the governments of the
United States
,
Great Britain
,
France
,
Germany
,
Russia
,
South Africa
,
Saudi Arabia
, and many others will formally recognize
the new Republic of China within the coming days. Intelligence reports that a
new American embassy will open in
Taipei
within the week. It is also estimated that
the
United States
will petition for permanent membership for
the Nationalists in the United Nations. It will be a simple majority vote— our
country cannot block membership with a veto.”